New Delhi–Dhaka Relations Enter a New Chapter After Khaleda Zia’s Death

Overview

A significant shift is unfolding in India–Bangladesh relations as New Delhi signals readiness to engage more closely with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) following the death of its long‑time leader and former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia. This development marks a notable departure from India’s decades‑long preference for the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, and suggests a recalibration shaped by political upheaval in Bangladesh and evolving regional dynamics.

Background: A Legacy That Shaped Bilateral Ties

Khaleda Zia, who passed away on 30 December 2025 at the age of 80, was a central figure in Bangladesh’s political landscape for more than three decades. Her relationship with India was historically fraught, shaped by disputes over water sharing, cross‑border insurgency, and her party’s alliance with Jamaat‑e‑Islami. India often viewed her governments with suspicion, particularly during the 2001–2006 BNP tenure, when New Delhi accused Dhaka of sheltering anti‑India insurgent groups.

Despite this, her death prompted condolences from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a high‑level Indian presence at her funeral, including External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

A Diplomatic Gesture Signals Change

During his visit to Dhaka for the funeral, Jaishankar met BNP acting chairman Tarique Rahman—Khaleda Zia’s son—conveying condolences and expressing confidence that her “vision and values” would guide future cooperation. Analysts cited in reporting describe this as a “dramatic break” from India’s earlier posture toward the BNP, which it had long regarded as politically unreliable and ideologically misaligned with Indian interests.

BNP officials described the meeting as “very cordial” and indicative of a “new phase” in bilateral relations.

Why the Reset Now?

Several developments have pushed India to reconsider its approach:

• Political Upheaval in Bangladesh:
  The student‑led uprising of July 2024 toppled Sheikh Hasina’s 15‑year rule, triggering strong anti‑India sentiment among segments of the Bangladeshi public who viewed New Delhi as Hasina’s primary external backer.
• Hasina’s Exile in India:
  Hasina currently resides in New Delhi and faces a death sentence in absentia for the 2024 protest crackdown, which killed more than 1,400 people according to UN estimates. India’s refusal to extradite her has further complicated perceptions in Bangladesh.
• BNP’s Strategic Repositioning:
  The BNP has distanced itself from Jamaat‑e‑Islami, making it more acceptable to Indian policymakers concerned about Islamist influence.
• Upcoming Elections:
  With Bangladesh’s national elections scheduled for 12 February 2026, India appears to be preparing for the likelihood of a BNP‑led government, though it has publicly stated it is willing to work with any elected administration.

Regional and Domestic Implications

The diplomatic thaw comes amid heightened India–Bangladesh tensions, including disputes over minority protection, cross‑border crime, and even sporting controversies such as Bangladesh’s ban on Indian Premier League broadcasts.

Tarique Rahman, who recently returned to Bangladesh after 17 years in exile, has called for national unity—messaging that analysts interpret as an indirect assurance to India regarding the safety of Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.

Voices From the BNP

Senior BNP leader Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury welcomed India’s outreach, describing Modi’s condolence message as a “positive step” that could help rebuild trust between the two countries. He acknowledged past disagreements but emphasized that bilateral ties were “largely stable” during BNP governments, with disputes limited mainly to issues like water sharing.

Conclusion

Khaleda Zia’s death has become an unexpected diplomatic pivot point. As Bangladesh navigates a volatile political transition, India’s engagement with the BNP marks a pragmatic recalibration aimed at stabilizing relations with whichever government emerges from the upcoming elections. Whether this reset leads to long‑term cooperation will depend on how both sides manage historical mistrust, domestic pressures, and the shifting geopolitical landscape of South Asia.