IRAN AT THE EDGE: DEADLIEST UNREST, COVERT WARFARE & THE SHADOW OF REGIONAL CONFLICT

A Nation in Revolt as Economic Collapse Turns Into Political Insurrection

Iran is witnessing one of the deadliest waves of internal unrest in its modern history, with activist networks reporting more than 500 deaths as nationwide protests enter their third consecutive week. What initially erupted as demonstrations against economic collapse, inflation, and currency depreciation has now transformed into an open political challenge to the Islamic Republic itself, including direct calls for the removal of Iran’s clerical leadership.

The scale, coordination, and intensity of the unrest mark a significant escalation, raising fears that Iran is not merely facing protests—but a systemic destabilization effort with regional and global consequences.

 FROM ECONOMIC DESPAIR TO REGIME CHALLENGE

The Currency Crisis That Lit the Fuse

The immediate trigger of the unrest lies in Iran’s rapidly deteriorating economy. Following the late-2025 snapback of UN sanctions by Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, Iran’s national currency lost nearly 50% of its value, unleashing:

• Runaway inflation
• Shortages of essential goods
• Collapse of purchasing power
• Widespread unemployment and social despair

For ordinary Iranians, this economic shock acted as a breaking point. Protests that began in Tehran in late December quickly spread across multiple cities, evolving from economic grievances into explicit political defiance.

✦ STREET VIOLENCE, RIOTS & INFRASTRUCTURE ATTACKS

From Protest to Urban Insurrection

As demonstrations intensified, Iranian authorities reported a shift from protests to violent riots, with groups targeting:

• Hospitals and emergency services
• Fire engines and public vehicles
• Religious institutions
• State infrastructure and transport networks

Footage circulating online—though difficult to independently verify due to the internet blackout—shows petrol bombs, torched vehicles, and widespread vandalism, signaling a level of coordination beyond spontaneous civil unrest.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a stark warning that the Islamic Republic would not tolerate what he described as “saboteurs, framing the violence as an existential threat to the state.

✦ THE STATE STRIKES BACK: SECURITY CRACKDOWN & INTERNET BLACKOUT

Government Response and Control Measures

President Masoud Pezeshkian authorized a sweeping security response, including:

• Deployment of security and paramilitary forces
• Mass arrests
• Lethal force against rioters, according to activist groups
• A near-total internet blackout, aimed at disrupting coordination and foreign influence

Pezeshkian publicly accused the United States and Israel of fueling the unrest, labeling violent participants as “foreign-backed agitators” seeking to fracture Iran from within.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reinforced this position, alleging active efforts to turn peaceful protests into violent chaos through foreign intelligence involvement.

✦ INTELLIGENCE WARFARE: CIA, MOSSAD & PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS

A Classic “Color Revolution” Playbook?

Geopolitical analysts, including Eelaththu Nilavan, argue that the unrest bears the hallmarks of a Western-backed “color revolution”, characterized by:

• Amplification of unrest via social media
• Psychological operations (PsyOps)
• Symbolic warfare, including changing Iran’s national flag online to the pre-1979 version
• Messaging aimed at demoralizing state institutions and security forces

Statements and social media posts from figures such as Mike Pompeo, alongside comments from Israeli ministers, are cited as evidence that Western and Israeli actors are openly capitalizing on the chaos.

Nilavan emphasizes that this is not merely protest support, but information warfare designed to fracture Iranian sovereignty from within.

✦ ISRAEL, THE U.S. & THE THREAT OF DIRECT WAR

Trump’s Warning and the Military Option

U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated rhetoric dramatically, confirming that:

• Iran is signaling interest in negotiations
• The U.S. military is reviewing “very strong options.”
• Potential targets are under consideration

Trump warned that if Iran follows through on threats against U.S. forces—particularly U.S. troops stationed in Israel—Washington would retaliate at “levels they’ve never been hit before.”

An emergency cabinet meeting has reportedly been ordered, signaling that military action is no longer theoretical.

✦ ISRAEL’S STRATEGY: “MOWING THE LAWN.”

Gradual Attrition, Not Total War

Analysts suggest Israel may be pursuing a long-term “mowing the lawn” strategy, involving:

• Periodic strikes on Iranian-linked infrastructure
• Intelligence sabotage
• Cyber and covert operations
• Strategic degradation rather than immediate regime change

This approach aims to weaken Iran incrementally, especially as internal unrest creates vulnerabilities.

✦ THE BIGGER PICTURE: IRAN, BRICS & THE MULTIPOLAR WORLD

Why Iran Matters Globally

Iran is increasingly viewed as a central pillar of the emerging multipolar order, due to its deepening ties with:

• China
• Russia
• The BRICS alliance

Through alternative financial systems and energy corridors, Iran plays a key role in efforts to bypass Western-dominated institutions. Nilavan argues that this makes Iran a primary strategic target, not because of ideology alone, but because of its geopolitical positioning.

✦ SOVEREIGNTY VS. REGIME CHANGE

The Core Warning

While acknowledging legitimate economic grievances, Nilavan issues a stark warning:
If Iran’s government collapses under external pressure, the outcome may not be democracy, but corporate capture and neo-colonial control, echoing the pre-1979 era.

The current crisis, he argues, is not simply about reform—but about whether Iran remains a sovereign state or becomes another fractured battleground in global power politics.

✦ CONCLUSION: A DANGEROUS CROSSROADS

Iran now stands at a historic crossroads. With hundreds dead, cities burning, intelligence wars intensifying, and military threats escalating, the situation risks spiraling into a regional confrontation with global consequences.

Whether this moment leads to reform, repression, foreign intervention, or outright war will shape not only Iran’s future, but the balance of power across the Middle East and beyond.