Washington Opens Early Dialogue With Cuba as U.S. Moves to Choke Havana’s Oil Lifeline

The United States has initiated early-stage communication with Cuban authorities even as the Trump administration intensifies pressure on the island by targeting its already fragile energy supply. President Donald Trump confirmed the development to reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday night, signalling a new phase in Washington’s approach to Havana.

A Shift in Strategy Amid Regional Upheaval

Speaking during his flight to Florida, President Trump said the U.S. is “starting to talk to Cuba,” though he offered no details on the level, timing, or nature of the outreach. The comment comes after weeks of aggressive U.S. actions aimed at cutting off Cuba’s access to oil—first from Venezuela following the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in early January, and now from Mexico, which had become a key supplier.

The administration’s strategy appears designed to force Havana to the negotiating table by tightening economic pressure. Trump suggested that the loss of oil imports would leave Cuba with little choice but to engage with Washington.

New Tariffs Target Cuba’s Remaining Oil Sources

This past week, the President signed an executive order imposing tariffs on goods from any country that sells or provides oil to Cuba. The order, invoking emergency economic powers, places particular pressure on Mexico, which has been supplying thousands of barrels of oil per day to the island.

Cuba, already grappling with years of fuel shortages and rolling blackouts, now faces the prospect of even deeper energy instability. The Cuban government has condemned the U.S. measures as a “brutal act of aggression,” warning that the island’s population could face extreme hardship.

Mexico Warns of Humanitarian Consequences

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed concern on Friday that the U.S. tariffs could trigger a humanitarian crisis in Cuba. She reaffirmed Mexico’s intention to continue supporting the island but did not specify how her government would navigate the new U.S. restrictions.

In response, President Trump dismissed the likelihood of a humanitarian emergency, arguing that Cuba would “probably come to us and want to make a deal.” He added that such negotiations could lead to a “free” Cuba, though he did not elaborate on what conditions Washington might demand.

Unclear Goals, Rising Stakes

Despite the President’s remarks, the administration has not outlined a clear diplomatic objective for its engagement with Cuba. Trump has predicted that the Cuban government is “ready to fall,” but officials have provided no evidence to support that assessment.

The combination of economic pressure, regional realignment following Maduro’s removal, and the sudden announcement of U.S.–Cuba contact has left analysts questioning whether Washington is pursuing regime change, a negotiated settlement, or a broader strategic repositioning in the Caribbean.

Cuba’s Energy Future in Jeopardy

With Venezuelan oil shipments halted and Mexican supplies now under threat, Cuba faces a narrowing set of options. The island has historically relied on allies such as Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia to meet its energy needs, but the latest U.S. measures could severely restrict those lifelines.

Experts warn that without alternative sources, Cuba may experience worsening blackouts, reduced industrial output, and heightened social strain—conditions that could reshape the political landscape.

This developing situation marks one of the most consequential shifts in U.S.–Cuba relations in years, blending diplomatic overtures with economic coercion. As Washington signals both pressure and dialogue, the coming weeks will determine whether the two nations move toward negotiation—or deeper confrontation.