India’s WPI Inflation Narrows but Stays Negative at -0.32% in November

India’s wholesale price inflation (WPI) remained in negative territory for the second consecutive month in November, registering at -0.32% year-on-year, according to official data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This marks an improvement from October’s deeper contraction of -1.21%, though the index continues to reflect deflationary pressures across key sectors.

Key Highlights

• WPI Inflation Rate: -0.32% in November 2025, compared to -1.21% in October and 2.16% in November 2024.
• Primary Drivers: Declines in prices of food articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum & natural gas, basic metals, and electricity.
• Food Inflation: Deflation in food articles eased to -4.16% in November, down from -8.31% in October, with pulses and vegetables showing month-on-month upticks.
• Fuel & Power: Marginal improvement, with contraction narrowing from -2.55% in October to slightly better levels in November.
• Manufacturing Sector: Inflation in manufacturing, which carries a weight of over 64% in the WPI basket, stood at 1.33%, indicating structural moderation.

Context and Analysis

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) tracks price changes at the wholesale level, serving as a key indicator of supply-side inflationary trends. The latest figures suggest that India’s inflationary environment remains benign, with wholesale prices continuing to contract despite some firming in food categories.

Economists attribute the November reading largely to a base effect, as last year’s WPI inflation stood at 2.16%. This statistical factor, combined with subdued global commodity prices, has kept wholesale inflation in the negative zone.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), earlier this month, revised its inflation projection for the current fiscal year downward to 2% from 2.6%, citing rapid disinflation across sectors. While consumer price inflation (CPI) remains positive at 0.71% in November, the divergence between wholesale and retail inflation underscores the complexity of India’s price dynamics.

Implications

• For Businesses: Persistent deflation in wholesale prices may ease input costs for manufacturers, though weak price growth could signal subdued demand.
• For Policymakers: The negative WPI reading offers comfort to monetary authorities, reinforcing the case for maintaining accommodative policy stances.
• For Consumers: While wholesale deflation suggests lower costs upstream, retail inflation trends will determine the extent of relief passed on to households.

Outlook

Experts caution that the negative WPI trend may persist until early 2026, as the base effect continues to weigh on year-on-year comparisons. Future movements will depend on global crude oil prices, food supply conditions, and domestic demand recovery.

India’s November WPI data thus paints a picture of an economy navigating disinflationary pressures, with wholesale prices contracting but showing early signs of stabilization.