𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑵𝑬𝑾 𝑮𝑬𝑶𝑷𝑶𝑳𝑰𝑻𝑰𝑪𝑨𝑳 𝑭𝑹𝑨𝑪𝑻𝑼𝑹𝑬

De-Dollarisation, Shadow Diplomacy, and the Escalating Risks of the Ukraine War

A Multipolar Signal from St Petersburg

At the year-end informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) in St Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a carefully calibrated message to both allies and adversaries. Against a backdrop of global economic turbulence, sanctions warfare, and active military conflict in Ukraine, Putin framed the CIS not as a relic of the post-Soviet space, but as a functioning economic and security bloc adapting to a post-dollar world.

His central claim was striking: over 96 percent of payments between CIS member states are now conducted outside the US dollar system, signalling one of the most advanced cases of regional de-dollarisation anywhere in the world.
This was not merely an economic statistic. It was a strategic declaration.

De-Dollarisation as Economic Warfare

Putin’s emphasis on national currencies reflects a broader shift underway across Russia-aligned economies. By expanding independent payment mechanisms and reducing exposure to Western-controlled financial infrastructure, CIS states are actively insulating themselves from sanctions, asset freezes, and currency coercion.

Trade turnover within the CIS reportedly reached nearly $90 billion in the first ten months of the year, a figure Putin cited as evidence that economic integration has strengthened rather than collapsed under pressure.

This transformation highlights a crucial reality:
sanctions have accelerated alternative systems instead of enforcing compliance.

Infrastructure, Logistics, and Strategic Corridors

Beyond currency, Putin pointed to hard connectivity as the backbone of resilience. CIS businesses are cooperating on major infrastructure and transport projects, particularly the modernization of transcontinental corridors such as:

• North–South Transport Route
• West–East Eurasian Logistics Axis

These routes are designed to bypass chokepoints dominated by Western powers and integrate Eurasia, the Middle East, and South Asia into a non-Western trade architecture.

In strategic terms, logistics has become geopolitics by other means.

Technological Sovereignty and Import Substitution

Another pillar of Putin’s address was technological independence. CIS states are prioritising:

• Import substitution
• Joint scientific research
• Digital infrastructure cooperation

The objective is clear: reduce dependency on Western technology supply chains that can be weaponised during political disputes.

This mirrors similar efforts in China, Iran, and parts of the Global South, reinforcing the emergence of parallel technological ecosystems.

Security Cooperation and a Shared Historical Narrative

Putin also emphasised collective security, citing joint efforts against terrorism, extremism, and organised crime. CIS members have reportedly agreed on long-term border security and logistics plans extending through 2030.

Interwoven with this was a strong historical narrative. Putin referenced the Great Patriotic War, stressing the need to preserve shared memory and resist what he described as the “falsification of history.”

This framing serves a dual purpose:
legitimising current alliances and reinforcing a civilisational identity distinct from the West.

𝑺𝑯𝑨𝑫𝑶𝑾 𝑫𝑰𝑷𝑳𝑶𝑴𝑨𝑪𝒀 & 𝑻𝑯𝑬 𝑼𝑺 𝑷𝑶𝑳𝑰𝑻𝑰𝑪𝑨𝑳 𝑺𝑷𝑳𝑰𝑻

Explosive Allegations from Michael Flynn

While Putin projected stability, the Western political landscape appeared increasingly fractured.

Former US National Security Advisor Michael Flynn publicly alleged that elements within the CIA, MI6, and allied European intelligence agencies are actively working to sabotage former President Donald Trump’s push for a negotiated end to the Ukraine war.

Flynn claimed:

• European powers are “desperate” to prolong the war
• US political elites benefit from a state of perpetual conflict
• Ukraine is becoming increasingly authoritarian under wartime conditions

These allegations, while fiercely contested, expose deep internal divisions within the Western security establishment.

Tulsi Gabbard and the ‘Weaponisation of Intelligence’

Adding weight to the controversy, Tulsi Gabbard, now serving as Director of National Intelligence, echoed concerns about intelligence leaks being used to shape public fear and media hysteria.

She cited US intelligence assessments indicating that Russia currently lacks the capability to conquer all of Ukraine or threaten Europe militarily, directly challenging more alarmist narratives.

Her remarks underscored a widening gap between intelligence analysis and political messaging.

𝑴𝑰𝑨𝑴𝑰 𝑻𝑨𝑳𝑲𝑺 & 𝑻𝑯𝑬 20-𝑷𝑶𝑰𝑵𝑻 𝑷𝑬𝑨𝑪𝑬 𝑭𝑹𝑨𝑴𝑬𝑾𝑶𝑹𝑲

Back-Channel Diplomacy in Florida

Behind closed doors in Miami, US special envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside Jared Kushner, engaged in parallel discussions with Ukrainian officials and Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev.

At the center of these talks lies a leaked 20-point US-drafted peace proposal, reportedly including:

• Ukrainian neutrality and non-membership in NATO
• Limits on Ukrainian military size
• Territorial concessions in parts of Donbas
• Western security guarantees in exchange

While described as “constructive,” the talks remain fragile.

Irreconcilable Positions

• Ukraine has firmly rejected territorial concessions
• Europe and NATO allies oppose any settlement undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty
• Russia insists on recognition of occupied territories and Ukrainian neutrality

The diplomatic process is advancing, but the political ground beneath it remains unstable.

𝑻𝑨𝑹𝑮𝑬𝑻𝑬𝑫 𝑲𝑰𝑳𝑳𝑰𝑵𝑮𝑺 & 𝑬𝑺𝑪𝑨𝑳𝑨𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑮 𝑹𝑰𝑺𝑲𝑺

Assassination in Moscow

On December 22, 2025, Lieutenant General Fonil Sarvarov, head of Russia’s operational training department, was killed when an explosive device detonated beneath his vehicle in southern Moscow.

The attack follows a series of high-profile assassinations since 2022, including:

• Daria Dugina
• Vladlen Tatarsky
• General Igor Kirillov
• General Yaroslav Moscalik

These incidents signal a dangerous expansion of the conflict into Russia’s internal security space.

𝑵𝑼𝑪𝑳𝑬𝑨𝑹 𝑺𝑰𝑮𝑵𝑨𝑳𝑰𝑵𝑮 & 𝑺𝑻𝑹𝑨𝑻𝑬𝑮𝑰𝑪 𝑫𝑬𝑻𝑬𝑹𝑹𝑬𝑵𝑪𝑬

Yars Missile Deployment in Siberia

Amid ongoing talks, Russia has deployed nuclear-capable Yars road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile systems on combat patrol routes in Siberia as part of scheduled drills.

The exercises include:

• Dispersal and camouflage operations
• Field position changes
• Drone-supported security measures

With roughly 150 Yars missiles across eight divisions, the system remains the backbone of Russia’s land-based nuclear deterrent.

This deployment serves as a strategic reminder: diplomacy is unfolding under the shadow of escalation.

𝑪𝑶𝑵𝑪𝑳𝑼𝑺𝑰𝑶𝑵: 𝑨 𝑾𝑶𝑹𝑳𝑫 𝑨𝑻 𝑨 𝑪𝑹𝑶𝑺𝑺𝑹𝑶𝑨𝑫𝑺

The convergence of economic de-dollarisation, secret diplomacy, intelligence infighting, targeted assassinations, and nuclear signaling reveals a global order under severe strain.

The Ukraine war is no longer a regional conflict. It is a stress test for the international system itself.

Whether the coming months bring compromise or catastrophe will depend not only on battlefield realities, but on the ability of fractured power centres to choose restraint over escalation.