Eelaththu Nilavan | Tehran –
□.Deeper Analysis: A New Chapter in the Shadow War
■. Rising Lion: A Hybrid Warfare Masterstroke
Between June 13–15, 2025, Israel executed “Operation Rising Lion” — an unprecedented hybrid assault blending deep-inside drone sabotage, clandestine Mossad commandos, and subsequent airstrikes. Over 200 Israeli aircraft hit more than 100 targets, including missile systems, nuclear sites, and IRGC command hubs. The operation’s opening phase “decapitated” Iran’s military leadership, killing IRGC chiefs like Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri, as well as nuclear scientists.
Central to the plan was a secret Mossad-engineered drone base inside Iran—smuggled in via shipping containers, trucks, and suitcases. Armed drones disabled air-defense and missile transport systems that might have intercepted the IAF raid.
This multi-layered approach—human intelligence, remote sabotage, stealth strike—establishes a new benchmark in covert operations, pivoting from remote digital warfare to embedded kinetic disruption.
■. Iran’s Swift Reaction: Cracking Down on Espionage
In the wake of Rising Lion, Iranian security services surged into action. Arrests in Alborz Province were publicly framed as the detention of two Mossad agents preparing explosives—a narrative Tehran uses to project vigilance.
Recent moves show a broader, intense campaign:
Mazandaran Province: IRGC counterintelligence disrupted networks camouflaged as NGOs, charitable fronts, and business entities tied to Israeli and U.S. espionage.
Ardabil and Qom: Multiple Mossad-linked individuals were captured attempting infiltration or propaganda campaigns.
Historical precedent: Similar large-scale sting operations have broken up entire Mossad rings, often showcasing dramatic contraband seizures and public “confessions”.
What’s new now: Iran is reacting with rare speed and scope. Instead of the typical theatrical announcements, they are deploying IRGC counterintelligence units nationwide—in provinces, urban centers, and near military installations—indicating a multi-pronged, methodical “spy purge.”
■. Iranian Strategy: From Narrative to Counterintelligence
Rather than merely responding with rhetoric, Tehran is intensifying several key layers:
Mass Intelligence Sweep: Multi-provincial raids and detentions across Alborz, Mazandaran, Qom, and Ardabil signal a broad-based counterintelligence mobilization.
Infra-Vetting of Institutions: IRGC is probing universities, NGOs, charities, and commercial fronts for espionage links.
Digital Monitoring & Social Media Sting: Drawing from Israeli tactics, Iran is now launching its own online decoy operations—fake recruitment pings and tracking of suspicious profiles.
Executive Messaging: Iranian leadership is showcasing perseverance—arrests are broadcasted to dispel perceptions of passivity and project domestic control.
■. Strategic Implications & Escalatory Risk
Dimension Implications
Iranian Intelligence Redoubling internal vigilance may temporarily slow Mossad infiltration, but deeper penetration from 2024–25 suggests vulnerabilities in urban, institutional, and border nodes.
Israel’s Strategy Continuing decapitation and sabotage campaigns, Israel signals intent beyond traditional defense, potentially redefining region-wide covert calculus.
Regional Dynamics With Israel operating within Iran and Iran countering with sweeping spy sweeps, the covert war threatens public escalation. Diplomatic pressures on the U.S. and EU to intervene are mounting.
■. Looking Ahead: Covert Conflict in a New Phase
Iran is likely to implement rigorous vetting, digital counterintelligence hubs, and cross-provincial spy hunts extending into universities and media fronts.
Israel will probably adapt: shifting toward deeper tradecraft, better cover for long-term cells, and expanded drone and communications concealment networks.
Global Watch: Observers are bracing for either an expanded covert “second wave” of Rising Lion or heightened Iranian retaliation, possibly through indirect proxy strikes.
■.Conclusion:
“Operation Rising Lion” wasn’t just a powerful strike—it was a paradigm shift in covert warfare, merging human assets with sabotage capabilities deep inside Iran. Tehran’s swift purge of Israeli agents—now spanning Alborz to Mazandaran and beyond—signals a fierce, nationwide counterespionage campaign. As Iran attempts to secure its borders and institutions, Israel’s ongoing tactics suggest a long shadow war ahead, fraught with danger for the entire region.
□ Eelaththu Nilavan □
16/06/2025
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Amizhthu’s editorial stance.
