□.Introduction: The World at a New Nuclear Crossroads
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in its 2025 Yearbook, delivers a chilling assessment: the world is hurtling toward a new nuclear arms race. After decades of painstaking disarmament, transparency, and confidence-building measures, the nuclear policies of major powers—particularly the United States, Russia, and China—are now veering toward modernization, expansion, and strategic ambiguity. With over 2,100 nuclear warheads now on high operational alert, the threat of nuclear confrontation is no longer confined to Cold War nostalgia; it is a real and present danger.
■. Modernization Over Disarmament: Reversing the Clock
For much of the post-Cold War period, global efforts aimed at reducing nuclear stockpiles, dismantling obsolete warheads, and reducing launch readiness. Treaties such as START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) and New START helped maintain strategic stability, particularly between the U.S. and Russia. However, as of 2025:
The U.S. and Russia are investing heavily in new ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), hypersonic delivery systems, and AI-assisted command structures.
China has made a dramatic shift from a minimal deterrence posture to a more assertive nuclear doctrine, building over 300 new missile silos in just the last few years.
The trend is not isolated; India, Pakistan, North Korea, and even Israel are upgrading their arsenals, further stressing regional balances.
This marks a clear reversal of the disarmament norms embedded in the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and prior global consensus.
■. Breakdown of Arms Control Treaties
Another stark concern raised by SIPRI is the crumbling architecture of arms control:
The INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) between the U.S. and Russia collapsed in 2019, allowing both sides to once again field short- and intermediate-range missiles in Europe and Asia.
New START, the last major bilateral nuclear agreement, is set to expire in 2026, and diplomatic efforts for extension or replacement are virtually stalled.
Multilateral platforms like the Conference on Disarmament are deadlocked, paralyzed by geopolitical rivalries and trust deficits.
Without these legal and diplomatic mechanisms, mutual transparency and verification have disappeared, breeding mistrust and strategic miscalculation.
■. The China Factor: A New Strategic Triad Emerges
One of the most significant developments is China’s accelerated nuclear expansion:
For decades, China maintained a posture of “minimum deterrence,” with a relatively small arsenal designed to ensure second-strike capability.
Now, Beijing is expanding its warhead count, hardening its launch facilities, and integrating nuclear planning into its broader military doctrine.
This places China on a trajectory to achieve nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia by the 2030s, fundamentally altering the global balance.
Unlike during the Cold War, where the arms race was largely bipolar, the emerging order is triangular, involving complex calculations between three nuclear superpowers.
■. High Alert Status: The Threat of Hair-Trigger Postures
SIPRI’s report highlights a disturbing fact: over 2,100 warheads are now on high operational alert, meaning they can be launched within minutes of receiving an order.
These include warheads mounted on land-based ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
The risk of accidental or unauthorized launch increases with the integration of AI-based early warning systems, which are vulnerable to cyber sabotage, false positives, or hacking.
The very logic of deterrence—preventing war through fear of mutual destruction—is being undermined by hyper-reactivity, rather than ensuring peace.
■. Erosion of Nuclear Diplomacy and Dialogue
What is perhaps most alarming is the decline in diplomatic engagement:
Backchannels between Moscow and Washington, once vibrant even during crises, are now largely silent.
China refuses to join trilateral arms control talks, arguing it has far fewer weapons than the U.S. and Russia, while simultaneously ramping up development.
The United Nations and IAEA have lost influence, and no new global forum has stepped in to fill the void.
As a result, deterrence-not diplomacy-is once again becoming the cornerstone of global security, reviving Cold War-era doctrines of mutual assured destruction (MAD).
■. The Risk Landscape: New Fronts and Flashpoints
Nuclear risks are no longer confined to the traditional U.S.-Russia axis. Several other regions are now nuclear flashpoints:
South Asia: Rising tensions between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, combined with both countries’ nuclear modernization, increase the chance of miscalculation.
Korean Peninsula: North Korea has miniaturized its warheads and is developing submarine-launched platforms, increasing survivability and ambiguity.
Middle East: With Iran’s nuclear program edging closer to weaponization and Israel’s undeclared arsenal, a nuclear arms race is quietly unfolding in the region.
Each of these regions presents the possibility of regional nuclear war, which could escalate into a global catastrophe.
■. What Can Be Done? Reimagining Global Nuclear Security
While the SIPRI report is sobering, it also offers a critical opportunity for global reassessment. Some necessary steps include:
Reviving arms control through multilateral diplomacy, especially involving China as a full partner.
Pushing for universal ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Developing a new generation of treaties that address AI, cyber threats, hypersonic weapons, and space-based delivery platforms.
Building nuclear confidence measures through transparency, hotlines, and joint military exercises focused on de-escalation.
More crucially, civil society, academic institutions, and younger generations must pressure governments to recognize that security based on fear is inherently unstable.
■.Conclusion: A Return to Sanity or the Edge of Annihilation?
The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 paints a grim picture, but it is not destiny. Whether the world slips into a new nuclear dark age or rediscovers the value of diplomacy, dialogue, and disarmament will depend on the courage of global leadership—and the vigilance of global citizens.
The world must remember: nuclear weapons are not just tools of statecraft—they are instruments of irreversible catastrophe. The path forward must not be one of escalation, but of strategic restraint, honest dialogue, and collective survival.
□ Eelaththu Nilavan □
17/06/2025
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Amizhthu’s editorial stance.
