✧.Introduction
As the world watches U.S. involvement in the Middle East, the war in Ukraine, and growing tensions in East Asia, China is advancing a quieter but equally transformative strategy across the Indian Ocean. Through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is embedding itself into the maritime arteries of global trade and security. What began as an economic development project has morphed into a sophisticated geopolitical framework—one that is now redrawing the power balance across Asia, East Africa, and the Middle East. The Indian Ocean, once seen merely as a trade corridor, has become the theatre of a new, slow-burning maritime power struggle.
✦.The Belt and Road Initiative: More Than Infrastructure
Since its launch in 2013, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has grown into the largest infrastructure project in human history, with over $1 trillion invested globally. The “Maritime Silk Road” arm of this initiative is particularly important for China’s long-term interests. Its focus is on developing deepwater ports, industrial zones, pipelines, fiber-optic cables, and even naval support facilities across strategic maritime chokepoints. These are not just commercial projects; they are instruments of influence, leverage, and potential military utility.
✦.Why the Indian Ocean Matters
The Indian Ocean is not just a shipping route—it is the maritime lifeline of Asia. Nearly 80% of China’s imported energy passes through the Indian Ocean, especially through the narrow and vulnerable Strait of Malacca. In the event of a major conflict, especially with the United States or India, this passage becomes a strategic weakness for Beijing. This vulnerability has driven China’s obsession with establishing alternative routes and diversified maritime footholds—known informally as the “String of Pearls.”
The Indian Ocean connects key regions: the oil fields of the Middle East, the resource-rich coasts of Africa, and the industrial centers of South and Southeast Asia. Control or influence over these maritime lanes offers China not just trade advantages, but also strategic depth, naval reach, and diplomatic weight.
✦.Key Maritime Nodes in China’s Strategy
One of the most visible signs of China’s Indian Ocean ambitions is the network of ports and facilities it has helped build or taken control of.
In Sri Lanka, the southern port of Hambantota was leased to China for 99 years after Colombo failed to repay Chinese loans. Though officially civilian, the port is now monitored by India and the U.S. for possible dual-use—commercial during peacetime, but militarily viable during crises.
In Pakistan, China has heavily invested in the deep-sea Gwadar Port under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Gwadar provides China with direct access to the Arabian Sea, bypassing the vulnerable eastern sea lanes. Recent satellite imagery from early 2025 shows expanded security perimeters and potential underground facilities near Gwadar—fueling speculation about future naval basing.
In Djibouti, China has already established its first overseas military base, directly adjacent to key U.S., French, and Japanese facilities. Djibouti is strategically located near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a gateway between the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. Chinese naval deployments there are becoming increasingly routine.
Elsewhere, China is financing or planning port developments in Myanmar, Maldives, Tanzania, Kenya, and Indonesia, extending its maritime reach from the South China Sea to the East African coast.
✦.The Digital and Cyber Dimension
As of 2025, China’s ambitions in the Indian Ocean extend beneath the waterline—through the Digital Silk Road. Undersea fiber-optic cables built by Chinese companies like Huawei Marine Networks now connect several Belt and Road ports and coastal cities, raising concerns about data security and surveillance. Chinese satellite tracking stations in the region may also support naval coordination and space-based intelligence gathering.
Many Indian Ocean nations have adopted Chinese 5G infrastructure, cloud services, and e-governance systems, allowing China to embed itself into their digital ecosystems. This integration is already influencing how these countries engage with the West and handle issues of sovereignty, surveillance, and cyber dependence.
✦.Geopolitical Impact in 2025
China’s expanding Indian Ocean presence is reshaping the strategic calculus of every major power. For India, it represents encirclement. For the United States, it represents the rise of a peer competitor with growing expeditionary naval capability.
India, in response, is expanding its own port investments in Chabahar (Iran) and building military infrastructure on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. It has deepened cooperation with the U.S., Japan, and Australia under the QUAD framework. Naval exercises like Malabar 2025 have become more frequent and more focused on countering Chinese presence in the Indo-Pacific.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command has raised concerns about Chinese commercial ports becoming “military access points” during conflicts. Pentagon reports in early 2025 specifically warned that Gwadar and Hambantota could be used for PLA Navy (PLAN) logistics during a regional confrontation.
In East Africa and the Middle East, Chinese port financing is translating into political influence. Several governments now avoid criticizing China on the global stage—including on issues like Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Taiwan—in return for infrastructure funding and diplomatic cover.
✦.Economic Crisis and the Debt Diplomacy Debate
A growing number of Indian Ocean countries, including Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Kenya, and Maldives, are experiencing debt distress due to unsustainable Chinese loans. In 2024, Pakistan requested a partial debt write-off after failing to meet CPEC-related repayment targets. Sri Lanka remains in IMF negotiations while juggling Chinese and Indian economic influence.
Critics call this “debt-trap diplomacy,” arguing that China offers loans for projects that are not economically viable, then gains strategic assets when countries default. Beijing denies this, portraying itself as a “development partner.” But the geopolitical consequences are undeniable.
✦.Where the Indian Ocean is Headed
As of mid-2025, the Indian Ocean is no longer just a space of commerce—it is a contested strategic frontier. China is not merely trying to secure its trade; it is positioning itself to reshape the international maritime order. Whether this leads to open conflict or a cold maritime rivalry depends on how India, the U.S., and other regional powers respond.
China’s bet is long-term: by embedding itself into the economic and physical fabric of Indian Ocean nations, it believes it can become the default power in the region—economically, digitally, and eventually, militarily.
✦.Conclusion:
China’s Belt and Road vision in the Indian Ocean is not just about ports and pipelines—it is a deliberate restructuring of the world’s maritime power geometry. From Hambantota to Gwadar, from Djibouti to Kyaukpyu, China is building a maritime axis that rivals American and Indian influence in the region.
While the West debates sanctions and alliances, China is laying concrete, cables, and naval networks. The real transformation is happening silently—along the shores of the Indian Ocean, where the future balance of global power may ultimately be decided.
Written by Eelaththu Nilavan | 04/07/2025
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Amizhthu’s editorial stance.
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