By Eelaththu Nilavan
Independent Geopolitical Strategist and Southeast Asia Conflict Analyst
✧. Current Situation (as of July 24, 2025)
The historic and often volatile border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia has once again erupted into violence, drawing the attention of the international community. Tensions escalated after the Thai military reported that a Cambodian reconnaissance drone violated Thai airspace near a sacred temple zone. The incident was followed by a devastating rocket strike from Cambodian forces using BM-21 Grad multiple launch systems, targeting a civilian area in a Thai border province.
In a rapid and forceful response, the Royal Thai Air Force deployed F-16 fighter jets to strike Cambodian military installations near the contentious temple regions of Preah Vihear and Ta Moan Thom. These tit-for-tat actions have reignited a decades-long feud, leading to casualties, mass displacement, and growing fears of a broader conflict.
So far, at least 14 people—including civilians and military personnel—have been confirmed dead. Over 40,000 civilians have been evacuated from both sides of the border, while hospitals, schools, and marketplaces have either been shut down or destroyed. Newly placed landmines have wounded several Thai soldiers, and tensions remain dangerously high across the region.
✦. Historical and Political Roots
The core of this conflict lies in the complex colonial legacy of Southeast Asia. In 1907, the French colonial administration drew a border map granting the ancient Preah Vihear temple to Cambodia. Thailand disputes the surrounding land of roughly 4.6 square kilometers, which was not clearly demarcated.
In 1962, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that the temple belongs to Cambodia. In 2013, the ICJ reaffirmed this decision, but the surrounding territory remained a gray area. Thailand has since maintained a military and cultural claim to the land, while Cambodia insists on full recognition of its sovereignty.
The temple dispute is more than a legal issue—it has become a symbol of nationalism in both countries. Sacred ruins such as Preah Vihear, Ta Moan Thom, and Ta Krabey are tied to cultural identity, pride, and political legitimacy. Their control is not just about geography, but about the soul of each nation’s historical narrative.
✦. Military Developments and Escalation
This latest round of fighting has marked a new level of intensity. Cambodian military forces reportedly launched a series of rocket and artillery attacks deep into Thai territory, claiming it was in response to surveillance violations. Thailand has accused Cambodia of using indiscriminate rocket systems like the Grad MLRS in civilian zones—a violation of international norms.
Thailand retaliated with precision airstrikes using F-16 fighter jets supplied by the United States. These jets targeted Cambodian bases allegedly involved in the drone operations and artillery launches. The use of manned aircraft in border conflicts represents a major escalation and could trigger a regional crisis if not swiftly contained.
Additionally, landmines—many of which were cleared after prior conflicts—have reappeared. Thai soldiers were injured in an area previously declared safe. Thailand accuses Cambodia of re-mining the zone in violation of the Ottawa Treaty. Cambodia denies responsibility.
✦. Political Turmoil in Bangkok and Phnom Penh
The conflict comes at a time of significant political instability in Thailand. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, was suspended from office after a leaked phone call surfaced in which she referred to Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen as “uncle.” The opposition seized the moment, and the Bhumjaithai Party withdrew from the ruling coalition, collapsing the government.
An interim administration led by Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is now overseeing the crisis. The political vacuum has emboldened Thailand’s military to act more aggressively without full civilian oversight.
In Cambodia, Prime Minister Hun Manet—son of long-time ruler Hun Sen—is using the conflict to consolidate power. His government has filed complaints to the United Nations and ICJ, accusing Thailand of aggression and civilian targeting. Although Hun Sen officially stepped down in 2023, his shadow continues to loom large, guiding Cambodia’s defense and foreign policy.
✦. Geopolitical Context and Global Power Rivalries
This border crisis is unfolding within the broader context of global power competition in Southeast Asia. Thailand is aligned with the United States and receives advanced weaponry and surveillance support, including F-16 fighters and drone systems. Cambodia, on the other hand, has increasingly turned to China, receiving military hardware, economic assistance, and diplomatic backing.
The battlefield along the Thai–Cambodian frontier now carries the fingerprints of this U.S.–China rivalry. Cambodia’s legal campaign through the ICJ is backed informally by China, while Thailand is coordinating closely with its Western allies. This proxy dimension intensifies the risks and complexity of any escalation.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been largely ineffective in mediating the crisis. ASEAN’s non-interference policy and lack of enforcement mechanisms have reduced its capacity to de-escalate tensions. Calls for restraint from Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, and Manila have gone largely ignored by both warring parties.
✦. Civilian Consequences and Regional Instability
The human toll of this conflict is mounting rapidly. Over 40,000 people from both sides have been displaced, creating a growing refugee and humanitarian crisis. Cross-border trade, which had been recovering after years of COVID-19-related disruption, has now been frozen. Farmers, transporters, and traders in the affected provinces have lost their livelihoods overnight.
Reports from local NGOs indicate that markets, temples, and even schools have come under indirect fire. Medical facilities are overwhelmed, and food shortages are beginning to emerge in conflict-affected areas. UNICEF and the Red Cross have issued emergency appeals, calling for a ceasefire and access to humanitarian corridors.
✦. Diplomatic Breakdown and Legal Gridlock
Diplomatic ties have rapidly deteriorated. Thailand expelled the Cambodian ambassador, and Phnom Penh has recalled its envoy in kind. Cambodia has petitioned both the ICJ and the UN Security Council for emergency intervention. Thailand, however, has rejected international jurisdiction, demanding bilateral negotiations through the long-defunct Joint Boundary Commission.
Cambodia’s strategy is to internationalize the conflict, leveraging global legal forums to gain legitimacy. Thailand prefers to keep the matter regional and under its direct control, fearing external influence and adverse rulings.
✦. What Lies Ahead?
If cooler heads do not prevail, the region may face a prolonged standoff. The use of airpower has changed the nature of the conflict and set a dangerous precedent. Localized clashes could spread into broader military operations, especially if national pride continues to override diplomacy.
However, there is still room for de-escalation. Mediation by trusted third parties—such as Indonesia through ASEAN or perhaps even the UN or China—could lead to renewed ceasefire agreements. For that to happen, both governments must be willing to put nationalistic rhetoric aside and focus on long-term stability.
The most likely short-term outcome is a sustained military presence along the border, periodic skirmishes, and a tense stalemate. In the long term, only legal clarity, international mediation, and responsible leadership can break this dangerous cycle.
✦. Conclusion
The renewed Thailand–Cambodia conflict is a chilling reminder of how unresolved historical wounds and modern geopolitical rivalries can ignite violence at any moment. Temples that once symbolized shared heritage have now become the epicenters of division, bloodshed, and global maneuvering.
This is no longer just a border issue—it is a multi-layered crisis involving nationalism, political power, strategic alliances, and the competing interests of global powers. Unless urgent and sincere diplomacy is undertaken, this border fire may soon consume much more than territory—it may destabilize the entire Southeast Asian region.
✰✰✰
By Eelaththu Nilavan
Independent Geopolitical Strategist and Southeast Asia Conflict Analyst
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Amizhthu’s editorial stance.
More from author –
